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  • Credit Bonds Monthly:Watch out for risks of private enterpri

      

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    ????Sector-specific spread monitoring in April. 1. Credit spreads continued to widen and grade spreads rose in April. By the end of April, credit spread of 3Y AAAand AAMTNs (medium term notes) gained 8BPand 16BPMoM respectively. In April, grade spreads increased: the yield spread between 3Y AAand AAAMTNs and between 5Y AAand AAAMTNsrose by 8BP, while term spreadoscillated around zero value. 2. The increasing range of spreads of quasi-municipal bonds was greater than that of spreads of industrial bonds. In April, the spreadsof industrial bonds as a whole rose slightly, and the increasing range of spreads of quasi-municipal bondsexceeded the increasing range of spreads of industrial bonds. At present, the spreads of AAAquasi-municipal bondsare quite close to those of industrial bondsof the same grade. However, there is a certain gap amongspreads of low-grade bonds. For instance, the spread of AAquasi-municipal MTNsis ~55BP lower than that of industrial bondsof the same grade. Recently regulators mentioned repeatedly the regulation of local debt risks. The uncertainty of the creditof quasi-municipal bonds will increase in the long run. 3. The spreads of steel and coal sectors remained flat with slight increase, while the spread of nonferrous metals sector widened slightly.By the end of April, the average credit spread of AAAbonds from steel and mining sector was 202BPand 217BPrespectively, both up 2BP MoM. From the end of March onwards, Hongqiao-relatedbondsplummeted. As a result, credit spreads of AA+ bonds from nonferrous metals sector rose sharply, but credit spreads of AAAand AAbonds from nonferrous metals sector widened by a small margin. After elimination of Hongqiao-relatedbonds, credit spread of AA+bonds from nonferrous metals sector gained 12BP as compared with the figure for February, which showed a limited impact. 4. Mining and steel remained as the two sectors with highest spreads. Through horizontal comparison among various sectors, by the end ofApril, mining and steel sectors remained as the top 2 sectors by credit spreads, immediately followed by chemical, nonferrous metals, building materials and commercial trade. In terms of degree of change, chemical sector was the sector with the largest increaseof credit spreads, immediately followed by nonferrous metals, mechanical equipment and building materials, and the increaseof credit spreads of mining and steel sectors was rather limited.

    ????Monthly market review: Supply increased, trading decreased,and yields generally rose. In April, net supply of credit bonds of major types was RMB78.6bn, which increased largely MoM. Issuers of AAbonds ranked first with 33%share, immediately followed by issuers of AAAbonds with 29%shares. Issuers from construction sector ranked first with 22%share, immediately followed by manufacturingand comprehensive sectors. In April, trading in secondary market was RMB1.38tn, which dropped considerably as compared with RMB1.78 tn of trading in the previous month; the yields generally rose, for 1Y bonds,the yields of AA-bonds grew largest with a gain of 26BP, the yields of AAbonds gained 24BP, and the yields of all other grades gained 9-20BP; for 3Ybonds, the yields of AAbonds grew largest with a gain of 39BP,the yields of AA+and AAA-bonds gained 37BPand 33BPrespectively, the yields of AAAbonds gained 31BP,and the yields of AA-bonds gained 21BP; for 5Y bonds, the yields of AAand AA+bonds gained 37BP and 35BP respectively,and the yields of all other grades gained 24-31BP; for 7Ybonds, the yields of AA+bonds gained 25BPand the yields of all other grades gained 19-21BP.

    ????Monthly rating adjustmentreview: Bonds involved in credit rating downgrade were all industrial bonds. In April, a total of 21credit bonds corporaterating upgrades (including 4outlook upgrades)and 7corporate rating downgrades were announced. Five of all entities involved in rating upgrade were urban construction investment platforms, and entities involvedin rating downgrade were all issuers of industrial bonds. Among enterprises involved in rating downgrade, Wuyang Construction??s corporate rating was downgraded from AAto AA-and its rating outlook was negative, which was mainly attributed to the issuer??s weak financial liquidity, restricted external financing, compensation risk with external guarantee and the risk of capital outflow.Gansu Dunhuang Seed Co., Ltd.??s rating was downgraded from AA-to A+, which was mainly attributed to weak competitiveness of products, a loss incurred to the issuer??s joint venture and the great difficulty of short-termimprovement, and the debt repayment pressure on the issuer. Xianglu Petrochemicals??rating was downgraded from A+to A-, which was attributed to current suspension of production of the issuer, unclear of production resumption date, and increasing financial pressure on the issuer.


    2017-05-11
    上一篇:Credit Bonds Weekly:Financial regulation will intensify and 下一篇:东旭蓝天:近15亿收购酒店定价合理 具升值空间


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